Sep 15, 2026
Last Updated: September 15, 2026
Demand forecasting means predicting how much of each product you will sell over a set period so you can plan stock levels before you run dry. For a bar, review sales history by day of the week, match it to local events, and plan around your busiest trading hours.
The five steps of stock management begin here, with data you already hold. Pull eight to twelve weeks of till reports and sort sales by category: draught beer, spirits, wine, mixers and soft drinks (gov.uk). Forecasting on weekly totals alone is a mistake, a single Saturday can carry a disproportionate share of wet stock movement, so daily patterns matter more.
Then set a safety stock level for every core line: the minimum you will not drop below before reordering. This guards against a delayed delivery or an unexpectedly busy night without tying up cash in overstocking.
Procurement is sourcing and ordering stock from your suppliers at the right quantity, time and terms. Over-order and you tie up cash; under-order and you face stockouts at peak.
Agree a lead time with each supplier, the days between placing an order and it arriving. Then work backwards from your safety stock level to set a reorder point for each line. If a supplier takes two days and you sell twenty bottles of a spirit over a weekend, your reorder point must sit above that weekend's demand.
This is where a reliable wholesale partner earns its place. Swallow Drinks, a family-run independent drinks wholesaler, has supplied the on-trade for over 40 years and offers trade ordering through a dedicated portal at Swallow Drinks trade ordering. For venues that need consistent delivery through the week, that reliability is the difference between a full back bar and an emergency run to a cash and carry.
Keep a simple supplier scorecard covering delivery reliability, order accuracy and response when something goes wrong. Review it quarterly and consolidate spend with the best performers.
Receiving is where you check that what arrived matches what you ordered; storage is where you protect its value until it sells. Both are quick to do and easy to skip, which is why so much bar stock quietly disappears.
When a delivery lands, count it against the delivery note before the driver leaves and note any shortfalls or damage immediately, claims made days later rarely stand up. Then store correctly: spirits and wines away from heat and sunlight, mixers and soft drinks in a cool store, anything chilled straight into the fridge.
Rotation prevents dead stock. Apply FIFO (first in, first out): new deliveries go behind older stock, so the oldest bottles sell first. For beer and short-life stock, date-label cases on arrival and check the front of the shelf weekly.
Tracking is how you know what you actually have, and stock taking templates for pubs make it repeatable. A good template records opening stock, purchases, closing stock and sales per line, so the numbers reconcile instead of drifting.
A practical weekly template should capture, for every line:
Run a full count weekly for spirits and monthly for everything else, with cycle counting in between, a small rotating group of lines each day. Barcode scanning speeds this up on high-volume lines; RFID tags suit venues with large cellars. The goal is stock accuracy: numbers you can trust enough to act on.
Most pubs cannot close for a full annual count, so the practical model is a rolling cycle count backed by one full stock take a year. A cycle count covers a defined subset of lines, all gins on a Monday, all wines on a Tuesday, so every line is counted at least monthly without disrupting trade. The annual stock take resets and checks the cycle count itself.
A workable cycle count procedure looks like this:
Variance is the difference between theoretical and actual usage. A small variance is normal; a widening one points to over-pouring, unrecorded drinks, a delivery shortfall or a counting error. The reconciliation formula is straightforward:
| Metric | Formula | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Cost of goods sold | Opening stock + purchases - closing stock | Total value of stock used |
| Theoretical usage | Sales mix × recipe measures | What you should have used |
| Variance | Actual usage - theoretical usage | Shrinkage, over-pouring or error |
| Variance percentage | (Variance ÷ theoretical usage) × 100 | Size of the problem |
Work through likely causes in order: counting error, delivery shortfall, over-pouring, then theft. Most variance in a well-run pub traces back to the first two, which is why the delivery check in Step 3 matters so much.
Shrinkage covers stock that disappears between delivery and sale: theft, damage, spillage, administrative error and unrecorded staff drinks. It is the biggest hidden cost in most bars and rarely shows up until stock take. The defences are unglamorous but effective:
For a single-site pub, a printed template and a spreadsheet will carry you a long way. Once you are counting more than a few hundred lines, or running more than one site, barcode scanning and stock management software start to pay for themselves by cutting count time and surfacing variance automatically.
The formula is:
| Day | Action |
|---|---|
| Monday | Review weekend usage, place main order |
| Wednesday | Midweek top-up for fast movers |
| Friday | Check weekend-critical lines, confirm delivery |
| Sunday | Reconcile deliveries, update stock records |
| Metric | Formula | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Cost of goods sold | Opening stock + purchases - closing stock | Total value of stock used |
| Drink cost percentage | (Cost of goods sold ÷ drinks sales) × 100 | Margin health per period |
| Variance | Actual usage - theoretical usage | Shrinkage and over-pouring |
The five stages are demand forecasting, procurement, receiving and storage, tracking and monitoring, and replenishment. For a bar, this means predicting what drinks you need, ordering from your supplier, storing stock correctly using FIFO, tracking usage through stock takes, and reordering before you run out. Following these steps helps you avoid stockouts on a busy Saturday night and reduces the cash tied up in overstocking.
Start by measuring every pour and training staff on correct measures. Use reducing bar waste strategies like daily stock checks on high-value spirits, tracking dead stock, and reviewing portion sizes. Conduct regular stock takes with proper templates to spot discrepancies early. If you notice a spirit is consistently short, investigate whether it is over-pouring, theft, or inaccurate recording. Small changes to how you track and store stock make a measurable difference to your margins.
Most bars should do a full stock take weekly, with daily spot checks on high-value or fast-moving items like premium spirits and draught beer. Weekly counts let you calculate your drink cost percentage regularly and catch problems before they affect your profit. If you serve food alongside drinks, align your bar stock take with your kitchen stock take so you have one clear picture of your entire stock position.
A reliable drinks wholesaler gives you consistent delivery, transparent pricing, and help choosing stock that fits your menu. Swallow Drinks has supplied the on-trade for over 40 years. You can register for a trade account at webtrade.swallow.uk.com to access the full portfolio, including low and non-alcoholic options, and get support with menu planning rather than just order taking.
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